>> 537. the number of votes that changed the course of american history. >> florida is too close to call. >> so this year, if you're thinking that your vote doesn't count, that it won't matter.

well, back then, there were probably at least 537 people who felt the same way. make your voice heard. vote. chris: mitt romney's mind game is to call heavily the new change agent. and inviting voters to hop on the winning train. >> you're seeing this movement growing. you're seeing people come together to say we love america. we recognize we can do better. i came in and some of the folks here were holding signs, democrats for romney, all right? i love that. i love that. chris: well, the question is, is mitt romney really wenning or is this a psychological game in which he's getting the democrats to be demoralized while all this talk of him being ahead? >> beats me. usually you have a gut feeling about it. i have no gut feeling about this election. but i will say this. that calling -- that optimism and saying it's a big deal is more -- is more fundamentally american and more optimistic and more positive, i think, and

so i would give romney slightly the upper hand on this message rather than saying you got to go out ask vote. chris: you may not like the things you are wut what happens if we lose the election seems to be the message. >> and that people like to go with a winner if he can project himself as winning it's helpful to him. the group of largely male voters that some democrats are concerned about who might switch secretly almost to mitt romney who are looking for an excuse not to vote for barack obama again, who voted for him in 2008 and aren't happy with the way things are going. once somebody else to vote for and now that mitt romney is both acceptable because of his debate performances, and it looks like he might actually win, it's easier to jump ship to him. that's the kind of group of people you'll have to watch in some of these tightly fought states. chris: david, your thoughts on this cy war going on in both directions clearly. >> i think obama may be making a mistake in this posture of sitting on a lead. there's a way in which the

president has been too defensive, too reticent in his demeanor through the campaign. and if you pull the camera back and look at the last couple of months, there's no question whatever the momentum factor is in these last few days, no question that over that broader period, there has been momentum toward romney. and people he was not really close challenger, he is now. and i think that factor is there. and you can just see it. you can see it in his body language. chris: i can see what obama is trying to do. he's trying to remind people of all the stakes in this election. if you get, for example, george w. bush elected over an al gore it makes tremendous impact. you go to war perhaps. >> and katty's point, does that get the people skiletted in 2008 by this hope, change message and by obama as the candidate as excited as playing to the fear that -- especially playing to 12 years ago, i'm not so sure. chris: ok. >> i agree with that. if at any point obama had said here's what we're going to do and it's really exciting, over

the next four years we started doing this thing and now we have the largest wind farm in the world in oregon, we're going to have another one in nevada. if he had just come with that kind of -- chris: big question. but paul krugman in "the new york times" on friday said he's afraid to do that. because he will be hit again with big spending and more deficits if he proposes anything. >> and playing the republicans' game. chris: ok. let's look at what could be the key to everything. ohio. and you've written about it. every winning republican has carried ohio. and joe, your magazine, "time" magazine has a big spread on it this week. why hoeup will decide the election -- ohio will decide the election and your ohio poll has obama up five points. the gender gap is big in ohio. obama up in 19 points among women. and another fascinating thing obama gets 43% of the wheat vote, higher than in most states. is it all about the auto bailout, smart move politically? >> it is all about the auto bailout. the chevy cruise which is assembled in ohio has ohio

parts. down to the seat covers. and everybody knows that the alternative to the auto bailout would have been 13%, 14% unemployment in that state. chris: is there a national positive for him on the auto front or is it just in a couple of states, wisconsin, obviously michigan, those kind of mi western industrial statse? >> coal being part of the state that's doing well. obviously that message will play better to romney there than to obama. but nevertheless, to back out for a second a look at the economy, generally speaking, you have states important swing states where the unemployment rate is lower than the national average. but the recent set of data we see a brightening of consumer attitudes. we see consumer sentiment and surprisingly at a five-year high despite historically high gas prices. despite a lot of the concerns that this is our expressing. we've seen really weak investment and orders in particular. so whether consumer sentiment will continue to hold up and importantly whether that will actually suggest that voters

are in a better mood than even the economic figures suggest, could give obama some more support than you might otherwise see and what's relatively weak period of growth. >> whoever it is elected in november is going to be looking at a real takeoff of the economy. all this money that'scying on the sidelines is put to work -- that's sitting on the sidelines is put to work. the u.s. is attractive compared to others around the world. the takeoff is scoming but won't come in time. chris: a lot of things going on. every voter has to look at a lot of issues. women and what they have to decide on. at the same time that we have this economic question, it's out there, it's a question. there's a lot of rhetoric coming from the republican right, murdoch and indiana and todd akin in missouri that would seem offensive to the middle of the road woman. and you look at these numbers they seem to be closing. the so-called gender gap seems to be closing in favor of romney. >> because women are also looking at economic factors. and so it's not just looking at health factors. you got two parallel messages. the obama compane talking to

women and saying your health interests will not be protected under president romney. and look at what the far right of the republican party is saying. is that what you want when if comes to issues like contraception and abortion? you have the republicans appealing to women saying you would be hit badly by the economy. we will protect your economic interests. so there's a two message which women are weighing up at the moment. really interesting. chris: number one issue is reproductive rights for women. if you poll all the different issues they put that at the top. >> i don't think that's true. there's been this revolution going on. the percentage of women graduating from college, greater than men. the percentage of women in the work force. i think that abortion and reproductive rights is still really important to women and now that they're working. but the economy has come all the way up to the same level as those personal issues. >> we have one in four american women now earn more than their husband and very interested in what their tax rate is going to be after this election. >> and the number will only go

up. chris: let's start to whip around. a gut question. i don't know if you can answer this but in your gut does mitt romney have the kind of support and oomph behind thim that defeats an incumbent president? a hard thing to do. if you think about it. a two-person race it almost never happens. >> you'd still say this is the test -- it's on obama's racket. i'm struck by the way in which romney as he presents himself to the country is different from the way that he was demonized early in this campaign by the obama advertising. people see him in the debates, it turns out that he's a likable guy. and chris: i agree with that. >> and sounding moderate, cheerful and optimistic and positive. that's a very different -- >> and for a reversal -- chris: they weren't ready for jekyll. they were selling hyde. >> my gut tells me no, partly baurgs the economic message has moved away from him in the accepts that using greece and some of these countries as a

scare tactic to say this is why we need to force government spending cuts and people are reassessing that and realize the damage that it does become, even on wall street becoming more skeptical of what a romney president would mean for growth and the federal reserve. chris: katty. >> i think if you -- if it comes down to ohio, and my hunch is that obama, look at joe's poll, obama is still looking fairly strong in ohio. i guess if you had to put your savings somewhere you would probably say -- chris: so an electoral victory but a popular vote loss. >> my head says the seam thing but my gut is saying what i started this segment with. beats me. i mean, really. romney had to pass a major test. and he passed it. chris: in the first debate. >> in the first debate. these debates are about one thing and one thing only. whether or not you want to have this guy in your house for the next four years. chris: once he's in the house, hard to get him out. >> i agree. i agree with this completely. >> that obama spent the entire

summer trying to con -- convince people you don't want this guy in your house and romney turned that around. chris: once he is in the leaving room -- in the living room watching tv -- i'm more skeptical of people saying i feel good about this. wait a minute. anyway, heerks the president hitting mitt romney as the change you can't believe in. >> there's no more serious issue in a presidential campaign than trust. you know that i mean what i say. and i say what i mean. chris: they're making that same case in tv ads. flip-flop tv ads are as old as television itself. democrats started it back in 1952 with this ad charge, that the g.o.p. was all double talk on the soviets. >> mr. g.o.p. he proposalses to solve all your problems. >> what about aid to europe?

>> i will personally tear down the iron curtain. >> not another neckal down that rat hole. let the commies have it. >> that's double talk. >> what are you complaining about? you get two for the price of one. chris: wow. and hubert humphrey brought the flip-flop ad back against richard nicks son. -- richard nixon. >> ever notice what happens to nixon when the political winds blow? he said i oppose a federal open housing law and this year i support the 1968 civil rights bill with open housing. which way will he blow next? chris: flip-flop ads were used by the two president bushes starting here with george bush 41 slamming bill clinton in 199 and then george w. bush's famous 2004 wind surfing ad against john kerry. >> presidential candidate on the left stood for military action in the persian gulf while the candidate on the right agreed with those who opposed it. one of these candidates is bill clinton.

unfortunately, so is the other. in which direction would john kerry lead? kerry voted for the iraq war. opposed it. supported it. and now opposes it again. john kerry. whichever way the wind blows. chris: funny thing is the guy who made that wind surfing ad that's bush's advisor mark mckinnon worked also for john mccain in 2008. and here's the recycled hand he work for mccain against primary opponent mitt romney. >> mitt romney seems to change positions like the wind. he tells florida he supports the bush tax cuts. but as massachusetts governor romney refused to take a position on the bush tax cuts. where does mitt romney? whichever way the wind blows. chris: and when we come back we've got a perfect storm coming ashore. that could affect things. and we have the big jobs number coming next friday. if it's bad, could it tip the election? plus scoops and predictions right from the notebooks of these top

chris: welcome back. this friday, we're going to get last unemployment report before the election. will it continue the promising trend we saw last month when the rate droppedown to 7.8%? the lowest since president obama took office. voters, optimism, favor barack obama, in the last nbc "wall street journal" national poll. voters who expect the economy to improve in the next 12 months are for president obama. by huge 40-point margin. kelly, i don't know whether it's chicken or egg but people who like obama like the future. >> the unemployment rate is expected to hold stead yes but don't be surprised it ticks up. a big move down the previous month and it has been erat he can but one thing we have consistently seen it comes to jump in one direction and backtrack. whether up or down. if we see it increase even if the payroll figures are ok expect that obviously to be the

big story. chris: the question is how will this affect women? once again, this is a big point. 9% of the vote is working women and they decide late. this is one of the weirdnesses about electoral politics. women vote at the last minute. >> you talk to campaign strategists and democratic strategists and say the one group of people we don't understand are women. perhaps that doesn't surprise most of the men. but they do say that women decide erratically and they decide very carefully. and analyze everything. they're much less gut voters than men are. look at the group of women that are particularly affected. it's the white, working class women. they are unemployed at greater ratse than men are. they haven't managed to get their jobs back in the seam numbers as men have been doing so recently. so they're particularly feeling this economic hit. and they're the ones that the romney campaign is trying to target, particularly with a message of trying to improve the economy for you. on the converse sood you got democrats targeting poorer white women saying planned

parenthood could be at stake and for those women that's -- chris: to make your point, the last nbc poll, those women, blue collar white women, 43-28 romney. let me try one other thing by you. >> it's about unemployment. chris: joe, and go around. anybody have any -- the term black swan, something that comes out of nowhere and like we had with henry kissinger back in vietnam saying peace is at hand or bin laden tape that came out at the last minute and really hurt john kerry. >> you know, 401-k's are such a huge part of the way people think about the economy now. something like 65% of the american people have them. the stock market has been drifting down. it's very close to the 13,000 mark. if it falls over the next nine or 10 days, that may not be very good for obama. if it comes back over the next nine or 10 days, it may be -- chris: it's been doing that back and forth. black swan ideas? >> you can always wonder if there's going to be some big

catastrophic event overseas that creates a crisis that allows a president to look presidential. my sense is that romney and obama are now so close in foreign policy positions, you would have less of an impact. so i think the exogenous factors is the economic numbers. and i think kelly had it right. that if you get an uptick in unemployment, from where it was, that is a big problem for the president. >> we're going to get other economic figures next week. we'll get a key read on manufacturing and saw the g.d.p. figures come in ok. chris: 22 r -- 2%. finally. >> the black swan is europe. and it doesn't look like there will be one. and on the positive side, you got big uptick in the housing market. chris: i think the president zpwoge to do well in handle -- is going to do well in handling this big hurricane. the number one job of a president is to protect us. i think that's a big issue. he can show himself to be a good president. when we come back scoops and predictions right from the notebooks of these top reporters. tell me something i don't know.

chris: joe, tell me something i don't know. >> something i don't know. i don't know why barack obama couldn't speak on the record in the way -- in the way that he spoke off the record to the des moines register in that interview this week. he was smart. he was funny. he was fast. he was compelling. and he was casual. i mean, it just -- i'm boggled. chris: how did you know how well he did? >> they then put it back on the

record. chris: i see. katty. >> i just got back from nevada and there's this housing boom going on in nevada. and people are buying up -- investors are buying up big tracts of housing that's fallen in price but not americans because they can't get the credit. asians and australians and canadians coming in and making money out of the housing crash. >> canadians in phoenix -- canadiansinphoenix.com. a key read on the jobs report thursday. a private sector tally. the methodology is being revised for the first time coming out next thursday. it's going to reduce the headline number. but basically everyone is going to say how weak will friday's report be and bring down expectations and even a report could wind up beating them. maybe that will give them better tone, better theme to the data. >> the second most important political transition in the world is taking place in china. in november. and analysts tell me that it is unexpectedly rocky. that the transition to a new

leadership group that was supposed to be settled isn't. and that their key leadership positions that are-so-still being fought over -- that are still being fought over. chris: the big question, no matter what he promises, could a president mitt romney agree to raise taxes to get a big a president mitt romney agree to raise taxes to get a big deficit

millions against question seven. that upsets me. and that upsets jonathan ogden. you don't want to upset jonathan ogden. ogden: no you don't. mayor: question seven means thousands of jobs and millions for our schools.

but these west virginia casinos want to keep it all for themselves. we're not happy about that. ogden: no we aren't. mayor: so join us and vote for question seven. and west virginia, don't make me send jonathan ogden over there. mayor: vote for question seven. ogden: for baltimore. chris: welcome back. this week, big business got behind the simpson bowles deficit proposal. that includes some tax increases. mitt romney then said forget about it. forget about any tax increases. which brings us to this week's big question. if he actually won the election, would romney agree to a tax increase as part of a big deficit solution? joe. >> he hasn't said read my lips. and i think that's the only way he's going to get a settlement is if he agrees to some revenue increases. chris: unless they get 50 senators and reconciliation and do it that way. >> they can do it. >> i think he will follow what business leaders keep telling us. that there has to be a big bargain and they recognize there has to be a revenue component to it. >> first big move as president,

i don't see how he can. i think that's why wall street is so nervous. >> i think that he will -- chris: he's locked into -- >> they're worried that the two sides -- there's no way that we're going to get an easy agreement on this. >> i think he will do revenue increases through tax reform. i think you're going to see a broad look at tax policy. and raise revenues but say that he's not raising taxes. chris: thanks to a great roundtable. joe klein, katty kay, david ignatius and don't forget to like us on facebook and we'll ignatius and don't forget to like us on facebook and we'll be back here next week.